Shapiro Firms As Harris Veep Favourite

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (D-PA) has firmed as the favourite to take Vice President Kamala Harris' Vice Presidential nomination after Arizona Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ), one of the three frontrunners along with Shapiro and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D-MN), appeared to rule himself out of the race in a social media post.

• According to Polymarket, Shapiro is now assigned a 71% implied probability of taking the nomination, ahead of Walz with 29%. Harris is likely to announce her running mate tomorrow.
• MNI's Political Risk team noted in the US Daily Brief this morning that Shapiro, "appears the most rational choice, assuming [Shapiro and Harris] have adequate personal chemistry."
• Although conventional wisdom suggests that a vice-presidential selection is rarely consequential to a presidential election outcome, Shapiro's name on the ticket could materially benefit Harris in Pennsylvania, a state which is most likely to be the “tipping-point state” that determines the result. If Shapiro can add a percentage-point or two to Harris’ performance in PA, it could reduce some of Harris’s perceived weaknesses in the Rust Belt and increase her electoral prospects.
• Walz would be a safe VP choice with relatively broad appeal but isn't considered a key player in Democrats’ broader future White House plans, and his state of Minnesota is unlikely to be a swing state in this cycle.
• Harris and her VP will launch a five-day tour of seven swing-state cities tomorrow, with stops in Philadelphia, PA, Eau Claire, WI, Detroit, MI, Durham, NC, Savannah, GA, Phoenix, AZ, and Las Vegas, NV.