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Sharply Weaker After Higher than Expected Q1 CPI

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -15.0 & XM -12.0) are sharply weaker after Q1 CPI data surprises on the upside across all measures. Headline printed +1.0 q/q and +3.5% y/y versus expectations of +0.8% and +3.4% respectively and priors of +0.6% and 3.4%. Trimmed Mean CPI printed +1.0% q/q and +4.0% y/y versus expectations of +0.8% and +3.8% respectively and priors of +0.8% and 4.2%.

  • (ABS) "The most significant contributors to the March quarter rise were Education (+5.9 per cent), Health (+2.8 per cent), Housing (+0.7 per cent), and Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.9 per cent). "
  • "Rental prices rose 2.1 per cent for the quarter in line with low vacancy rates across the capital cities. Rents continue to increase at their fastest rate in 15 years."
  • Cash ACGBs are 7-8bps cheaper after the data and 11-13bps cheaper on the day. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is 11bps higher at -23bps.
  • Swap rates are 8-11bps higher after the data and 12-15bps higher on the day. The 3s10s curve is 4bps flatter versus yesterday’s close.
  • The bills strip has sharply bear-steepened, with pricing -5 to -17.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 6-7bps firmer for 2025 meetings after the data.
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