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ILS: Shekel Extends Losses Amid Ceasefire Uncertainty

ILS
EM BulletBulletEmerging Market NewsMiddle East

Spot USD/ILS continues to creep higher amid uncertainty around the sustainability of Gaza ceasefire, last dealing +36 pips at 3.5955. A break above the 50-DMA (3.6109) would bring key resistance from Jan 27 high of 3.6392. Bears continue to look for a dip through Feb 6/Jan 22 lows of 3.5358/00.

  • PM Netanyahu threatened to scrap the existing ceasefire deal and resume "intense fighting" in Gaza, if Hamas fails to release hostages by Saturday noon. Netanyahu did not go as far as to explicitly echo US President Trump's demand for the release of all hostages, with some suggesting that the ambiguity was deliberate and intended to gauge Hamas's reaction to Trump's earlier comments.
    • Separately, the Telegraph reported that "Hamas has ordered its senior leaders in Gaza to stop using mobile phones to hide their locations as they prepare for a restart of fighting in Gaza."
  • Local data releases pick up from here, with trade balance coming up tomorrow and CPI due Friday. Bloomberg consensus looks for an acceleration in headline inflation to +3.7% Y/Y in January from +3.2% prior.
  • Local-currency bonds are slightly weaker. The TA-35 Index has shed 0.4% this morning.
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Spot USD/ILS continues to creep higher amid uncertainty around the sustainability of Gaza ceasefire, last dealing +36 pips at 3.5955. A break above the 50-DMA (3.6109) would bring key resistance from Jan 27 high of 3.6392. Bears continue to look for a dip through Feb 6/Jan 22 lows of 3.5358/00.

  • PM Netanyahu threatened to scrap the existing ceasefire deal and resume "intense fighting" in Gaza, if Hamas fails to release hostages by Saturday noon. Netanyahu did not go as far as to explicitly echo US President Trump's demand for the release of all hostages, with some suggesting that the ambiguity was deliberate and intended to gauge Hamas's reaction to Trump's earlier comments.
    • Separately, the Telegraph reported that "Hamas has ordered its senior leaders in Gaza to stop using mobile phones to hide their locations as they prepare for a restart of fighting in Gaza."
  • Local data releases pick up from here, with trade balance coming up tomorrow and CPI due Friday. Bloomberg consensus looks for an acceleration in headline inflation to +3.7% Y/Y in January from +3.2% prior.
  • Local-currency bonds are slightly weaker. The TA-35 Index has shed 0.4% this morning.