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Shift Lower in UST Yields Supports CE3 FX

CEE FX

CE3 FX has been supported by the shift lower in UST yields following the ECB rate decision and, in particular, the US GDP data. The US numbers were largely driven by inventories and softer-than-expected core PCE, with higher jobless claims providing additional impetus to moves in USTs – underpinning emerging market currency strength, which is particularly prevalent in CE3. EURHUF, EURPLN and EURCZK have all recorded fresh intraday lows, with the latter noted to have reached a cyclical high this morning.

  • For EURHUF, a break of the Tuesday low at 380.73 is needed to signal a reversal of the most recent bullish theme. This would open 378.24, the Aug 30 low, further out.
  • EURPLN support levels are marked at Oct 17/Jul 31 lows of 4.4096/4.3986.
  • The EURCZK support area is found at around 24.30 - though this region is some way away from current levels.
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