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Short End Update Post-ECB 50Bp Hike

STIR
  • It appears there is little knock-on effect on US rates implied pricing after the ECB hiked 50bp this morning. Short end remains strong, front month 2Y futures +6.12 at 103.23, 2Y yield holding around 3.8700% vs 3.8149% overnight low.
  • Peak Fed terminal rate at 4.855% in May'23 while mid-year rate cut expectations gain traction.
  • Fed funds implied hike for Mar'23 at 17.1bp, May'23 cumulative 28.2bp to 4.858%, Jun'23 0.0bp to 4.582%. Rate cuts pricing in for the July 26 FOMC, cumulative of -38.2 to 4.195%.
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