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Showing Strength, Watching Russian Headlines, CPI Monthly On Wednesday

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs showed strength in the Sydney session (YM +6.0 & XM +4.0). The trading range remained relatively narrow, lacking significant domestic catalysts. Instead, the movements in the local market seemed to be influenced by the slight upward trajectory of US tsys, which responded to the political unrest that occurred in Russia over the weekend. Asia-Pac trading saw cash US tsy yields 1-2bp lower. It is worth highlighting, however, that global markets, including commodities like oil and gold, as well as stocks and currencies, demonstrated a notable sense of stability throughout Monday's Asian trading session.

  • Cash ACGBs are 4-7bp richer with the 3/10 curve steeper and the AU-US 10-year yield differential +4bp at +24bp.
  • Swap rates are 4-7bp lower with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip bull flattens with pricing +5 to +9.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-7bp softer across meetings.
  • The local calendar is light tomorrow with the weekly highlights being Wednesday’s CPI Monthly and Thursday's Retail Sales releases. CPI monthly is expected to print at 6.1% y/y, after the unexpected jump to 6.8% in April. Meanwhile, retail sales are expected to provide further confirmation that the consumer slowdown is underway.
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