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Significant GoC Outperformance After Mixed Jobs Reports

CANADA
  • Booming US payrolls and a second month of falling Canadian employment, despite some analysts seeing it as a sign of hitting capacity constraints, has seen GoCs significantly outperform Tsys.
  • Offering further, marginal, support for this more recently was a sharp decline in the Ivey PMI from 62.2 to 49.6, the lowest since Dec’21 (Omicron restrictions) for what can be a volatile series.
  • Outperformance is seen across the curve (GoCs up 9-9.5bps through 2-10YY vs Tsys 17-14.5bps), which sees both 2Y and 10Y Can-US differentials back near recent lows at +2bps and -7bps.
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  • Booming US payrolls and a second month of falling Canadian employment, despite some analysts seeing it as a sign of hitting capacity constraints, has seen GoCs significantly outperform Tsys.
  • Offering further, marginal, support for this more recently was a sharp decline in the Ivey PMI from 62.2 to 49.6, the lowest since Dec’21 (Omicron restrictions) for what can be a volatile series.
  • Outperformance is seen across the curve (GoCs up 9-9.5bps through 2-10YY vs Tsys 17-14.5bps), which sees both 2Y and 10Y Can-US differentials back near recent lows at +2bps and -7bps.