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Significant Inversion Maintained

US EURODLR FUTURES
  • Eurodollars have unwound some of today’s rally, especially further out the curve, but it doesn’t materially change the takeaway from the session: implied yields have been trimmed across the curve (6.5-8bps in most cases) and the recent aggressive inversion through 2023 remains intact.
  • Having initially reversed the rally seen after growth fears were exacerbated by Friday’s ISM manufacturing miss (including the first contraction in new orders since May’20), yields are now between 5-15bps lower than pre-ISM levels again, with the largest difference in the green pack.
  • Yields are seen peaking in EDZ2 at 3.60% before 75bps of cuts in EDZ2/EDZ3 and then a further 25bp in EDZ3/EDZ4, although interestingly before renewed hikes are priced further out.

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