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Simsek Recommits to Rebalancing as Inflation Inline with Expectations

TURKEY
  • Inflation data came in modestly below expectations for March, at +3.16% M/M vs. Exp. +3.50%, +68.5% Y/Y vs. Exp. +69.10%. Core CPI was broadly inline at +75.21% vs. Exp. +75.19%.
  • The data was close enough to expectations to mean little for the trajectory of CBRT policy, with Treasury Minister Simsek noting that the decrease in inflation was in line with the ministry’s forecast.
  • He notes that additional tightening in policy after last month’s CBRT hike will “contribute significantly” to balancing demand, while increased external financing will strengthen macro stability. On fiscal, he notes that outside of earthquake-related spending, controls will be tightened.
  • Elsewhere, Hurriyet polling finds that CHP’s victory in the series of local elections this weekend can be largely attributed to the surge in living costs and high levels of inflation. As a result, the pollster Betimar concludes that the AKP lost the elections, rather CHP themselves winning.
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