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Sizeable Upward Revisions To Core PCE Inflation In 1H22

  • Core PCE inflation has been revised higher in 1H22, narrowing an increasingly large wedge to core CPI.
  • 4Q21 was revised down from 5.0 to 4.8% but then accelerated to 5.6% (originally 5.2%) in Q1 before 4.7% in Q2 (originally 4.4%) – all Q/Q annualized rates [see chart].
  • We wait to see whether these upward revisions continued into Q3 with tomorrow’s August release, seen bouncing from 0.1 to 0.5% M/M.

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