Skepticism On The Significance Of "A Number"

Most attention in the April FOMC minutes was on the line citing the potential for "talking about talking about tapering" : "A number of participants suggested that if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the Committee's goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases."

• In its initial take on the minutes, Goldman Sachs wrote that the "disappointing" April employment report - which was of course released after the meeting - "likely postpones the potential start of such discussions".
• For similar reasons, TD remains "skeptical that officials will be ready to send what might be construed as a 'taper countdown signal' as soon as the June meeting, or even the July meeting, which would likely be needed for tapering to be announced before year-end".
• They suspect "a number" of participants means around 4 or 5 officials.
• If that assumption is correct, we note that would be more or less equivalent to the 4 2022 hike 'dots' in the March SEP, which would in turn be consistent with desiring a conversation about tapering in the upcoming meetings. So even if we don't consider the minutes stale as a result of the April payrolls report, there's not necessarily much new information contained in the much-scrutinized sentence.