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Skittish Ahead Month-End, Stocks Well Bid Ahead Earnings

US TSYS

Skittish markets, FI trading weaker after the bell but well off lows. Curves bear flattening as the short end remains under heavy pressure (2YY +.0466 at 2.6375% vs. 2.6761%H; 30YY -.0103 at 2.9109% vs. 2.9690%H).

  • Tsy and Eurodollar futures sold off pre/post-German inflation data that weighed on Bunds ahead the NY open, drew short cover support after GDP shrank -1.4% in Q1 vs. an estimates +1.0%.
  • Weakness exacerbated by falling inventories, most notably wholesale trade (mainly motor vehicles) and retail trade (notably, "other" retailers and motor vehicle dealers). These are likely particularly volatile with offsetting swings in subsequent quarters.
  • Futures moderated through the second half, inched lower $44B 7Y note auction (91282CEM9) tailed: 2.908% high yield vs. 2.890% WI; 2.41x bid-to-cover vs. 2.44x last month.
  • Market also watching continued surge in US$ strength, DXY $ index that climbed to new 5Y high of 103.928.
  • As well as stocks as they topped 4300.0 in late trade, awaiting earnings annc's from Apple (AAPL), Western Digital (WDC), Intel (INTC), Amazon (AMZN) after the close.
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