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Slightly Cheaper, Narrow Range, Q2 CPI Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM -1.0) sit slightly weaker after trading in a narrow range in the Sydney session.

  • Tomorrow the local calendar sees the release of Q2 CPI data. Bloomberg consensus expects headline CPI to print +1.0% q/q (5.5% y/y) versus +1.4% q/q (5.6% y/y) in Q1. Power rebates are holding down inflation while goods prices continue to rise. Trimmed Mean CPI is forecast to print +1.1% q/q (6.0% y/y) from +1.2% (6.6% y/y) in Q1, +1.7% in Q4 and +1.9% in Q3.
  • Q2 and June CPI data will be an important input into the RBA’s August 1 decision on rates. Expectations are close to the RBA’s May June-23 forecasts of 6.3% and 6.0% respectively, which may be enough for another pause dependent on services inflation. (See MNI’s CPI Preview here).
  • Cash ACGBs are 1-2bp cheaper with the 3/10 curve flatter and the AU-US 10-year yield differential -4bp at +14bp.
  • Swap rates are 1bp higher with EFPs little changed.
  • The bills strip bear steepens with pricing flat to -4.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bp softer across meetings with a 54% chance of a 25bp hike priced for August.
  • Later today, US House Prices, Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Mfg Index are due.
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