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AUSSIE BONDS: Slightly Cheaper, Subdued Ahead Of US CPI, Jobs Report Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS
BulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM -2.0) are slightly cheaper after trading in a narrow range in today's data-light Sydney session.   

  • Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s directionless session. Focus turns to today’s CPI inflation data for December where rental inflation is expected to accelerate to an average figure that firmly rounds to 0.3% M/M in December.
  • Cash ACGBs are 1-2bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -15bps.
  • Swap rates are 1-2bps higher.
  • The bills strip -1 to -2 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is fully priced for April (102%) now, with the probability of a February cut at 68% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the December Employment Report. The market is expecting +15k jobs with the unemployment rate nudging higher from 3.9% to 4.0%.
  • AOFM Bond issuance will issue A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2027 bond on Friday. 
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ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM -2.0) are slightly cheaper after trading in a narrow range in today's data-light Sydney session.   

  • Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s directionless session. Focus turns to today’s CPI inflation data for December where rental inflation is expected to accelerate to an average figure that firmly rounds to 0.3% M/M in December.
  • Cash ACGBs are 1-2bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -15bps.
  • Swap rates are 1-2bps higher.
  • The bills strip -1 to -2 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is fully priced for April (102%) now, with the probability of a February cut at 68% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the December Employment Report. The market is expecting +15k jobs with the unemployment rate nudging higher from 3.9% to 4.0%.
  • AOFM Bond issuance will issue A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2027 bond on Friday.