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AUSSIE BONDS: Slightly Cheaper, Subdued Session, CPI Monthly Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS
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ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM -1.0) are slightly weaker in a relatively subdued Sydney session. 

  • Outside of the previously outlined building approvals, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
  • Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest bear-steepener. Tuesday’s US data calendar includes JOLTS, ISM Services and Tsy 10Y Re-Open.
  • Cash ACGBs are 1bp cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -14bps.
  • Swap rates are 2-3bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing flat to -6 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 4bps firmer, with late 2025 leading. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced by April (108%), with a February cut at a 58% chance.
  • November CPI is released tomorrow and is likely to be watched closely ahead of Q4 data on January 29. It will also include more updates for services components than the October release. Bloomberg consensus is forecasting the headline to pick up 0.1pp to 2.2%. The trimmed mean was 3.5% the previous month.
  • The local calendar shows retail sales and trade balances on Thursday.
  • AOFM Bond issuance is expected to resume in the week beginning 13 January 2025.
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ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM -1.0) are slightly weaker in a relatively subdued Sydney session. 

  • Outside of the previously outlined building approvals, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
  • Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest bear-steepener. Tuesday’s US data calendar includes JOLTS, ISM Services and Tsy 10Y Re-Open.
  • Cash ACGBs are 1bp cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -14bps.
  • Swap rates are 2-3bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing flat to -6 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 4bps firmer, with late 2025 leading. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced by April (108%), with a February cut at a 58% chance.
  • November CPI is released tomorrow and is likely to be watched closely ahead of Q4 data on January 29. It will also include more updates for services components than the October release. Bloomberg consensus is forecasting the headline to pick up 0.1pp to 2.2%. The trimmed mean was 3.5% the previous month.
  • The local calendar shows retail sales and trade balances on Thursday.
  • AOFM Bond issuance is expected to resume in the week beginning 13 January 2025.