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Slightly Richer After August Employment Beats, But Composition Less Robust

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +2.6 & XM +3.5) are 1-3bp richer after the data drop despite the August employment report beating expectations (+64.9k jobs versus +25k est.). However, the composition of the jobs report was less constructive, with most of the increase in employment being part-time (+62.1k) and the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.7%.

  • Earlier, the Melbourne Institute’s consumer inflation expectations for September eased to 4.9% in August from 5.2%.
  • Cash ACGBs are 3-4bp richer on the day, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential +1bp at -12bp.
  • Swap rates are flat to 3bp lower on the day, with 3-year EFP wider.
  • The bills strip is mixed, with pricing -2 to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings after the employment report, with terminal rate expectations unchanged at 4.19%.

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