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Slightly Stronger But Still Below Yesterday’s ADP Employment-Induced High

GOLD

Gold is slightly higher in the Asia-Pac session, after closing 0.1% higher at $2039.52 on Wednesday following the FOMC Policy Decision.

  • The bullion market experienced considerable volatility during the session, marked by a peak of $2055.92. This surge in gold occurred as the USD dollar weakened and US Treasury yields declined due to disappointing US economic data. ADP Employment showed a change of 107k vs. 135k est (prior down revised to 158k from 164k), ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls for January.
  • However, later in the session, there was an intraday resurgence in the USD and yields as Fed Chair Powell expressed reservations about the possibility of a Fed rate cut in March.
  • The market is now assigns around a 35% chance to a 25bp rate cut in March. This compares to the near 70% chance seen a couple of weeks ago.
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