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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- Similar to surprisingly strong core inflation, real consumer spending was also stronger than expected in Q2 at 2.3% annualized even if it was closer to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow (cons 2.0, GDPNow 2.3).
- For context of the recent trend, the tentative 2.3% follows 1.5% in Q1 and a particularly strong 3.2% average in 2H23.
- Real consumer spending is seen printing another rounded 0.3% M/M in June after a currently seen 0.26% M/M in May.
- That saw a recovery from the -0.13% M/M in April, with the swing coming from goods consumption (0.59% M/M after -0.69% M/M) against a backdrop of steady service consumption moderation (0.10% M/M after 0.14% M/M).
- The quarterly data in yesterday's GDP report roughly support this trend, with goods consumption 2.5% after -2.3% vs services at 2.2% after 3.3%.
- Last week’s retail sales were notably stronger than expected in June, with overall sales flat in nominal terms (cons -0.3) and stronger in real terms considering a decline in CPI core goods prices that month. Further, control group sales jumped a nominal 0.9% (cons 0.2) after 0.4% M/M.
- So, goods consumption was likely solid in May but services are watched seeing as they account for almost 70% of consumer spending.
- Elsewhere, we watch the personal saving rate after revisions left a flatter profile in the May report. At 3.9%, it’s off cycle lows but remains historically depressed, suggesting a new for a (potentially slow) trend higher. That’s especially so with household “excess savings” accumulated through the pandemic now broadly estimated to have fully or almost fully depleted.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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