SWEDEN: Smaller “Black Week” Sales and Electricity Surge Biased CPIF Higher

Swedish November CPIF ex-energy confirmed flash estimates at 2.4% Y/Y, four tenths above the Riksbank’s September MPR projection. There were clearly seasonal/one-off factors at play in November, which should allow the Riksbank to look through the release at the December meeting (where a 25bps cut is expected). However, the recent uptick in inflation (and inflation momentum) may contribute to a slightly more cautious Riksbank stance heading into 2025.

• As anticipated by some analysts following the flash release, the negative impact of “Black week” sales on the prices of some goods and services was less than in November 2023, pushing annual rates higher. As in Norway, the later timing of Black Friday in 2024 (relative to 2023) may have also upwardly biased the prices collected for the CPI.
• Clothing and footwear prices rose 0.2% M/M, compared to a -1.2% M/M print last year. This helped the annual rate pick up to 3.7% Y/Y (vs 2.3% prior).
• Furnishings and household equipment and recreation and culture also saw smaller price falls in November 2024 relative to a year ago.
• Note that the weaker SEK through October 2024 may have also fed through into higher prices last month.
• Headline CPIF was 1.8% Y/Y (vs 1.849% unrounded, hence the downward revision vs the 1.9% flash). This was largely due to a 22.4% M/M rise in electricity prices, which had not been accounted for in the Riksbank’s September MPR projection (of 0.9% Y/Y).
• Food prices rose again, bringing the annual rate to 1.9% Y/Y (vs 1.7% prior).