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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SLOVAKIA
Former Prime Minister Robert Fico's left-wing populist Smer-SD remains on course to emerge as the largest party in the National Council in the 30 September legislative elections according to opinion polls. However, a number of smaller parties hovering around the various thresholds to gain representation could make the formation of a stable governing coalition post-election difficult. While Slovakia is a small eurozone economy, its position bordering Ukraine and the prospect of a U-turn in its stance on support for Kyiv makes the country's election of outsized importance.
- In order to win seats a single party must win at least 5% of the nationwide vote. For two or three-party coalitions this threshold rises to 7%, and for four-or-more party coalitions it is 10%.
- Average opinion polling in September puts the right-wing populist We Are Family (SR) party on 5.4% support, the social conservative Christian Democrats (KDH) on 5.4%, and the liberal Freedom and Solidarity (SASKA) on 5.9%. Should all three gain representation it would dilute the seats awarded to Smer-SD and its main challenger, the pro-EU liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS), potentially making coalition formation more difficult.
- Even if one or more fall below the threshold, coalition formation could prove a lengthy process. Smer-SD's natural ally would be the centre-left Hlas-SD of former PM Peter Pellegrini. However, Pellegrini has ruled out working with the far-right nationalist Republic in gov't, seen as one of Smer-SD's potential coalition allies.
- RFE/RL reports "Fico has ruled out more Slovak arms deliveries to its eastern neighbor, dismissed further EU sanctions on Russia, questioned the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, and parroted Kremlin narratives that NATO caused the war..."
Chart 1. Slovakia Opinion Polling Seat Predictions
Source: Polis Slovakia, Ipsos, SANEP, Focus, AKO, NMS, Median, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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