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SNP Set To Win 5-Seat Majority According To Latest 'Nowcast'

SCOTLAND

The latest 'Nowcast' of Scotland ahead of the 6 May Scottish parliament election shows the separatist Scottish National Party (SNP) still on course to win a majority at Holyrood in a result that could have significant implications for the UK's political stability.

  • Holyrood Nowcast (21st April), Seats: SNP: 67 (-2), Conservative: 25 (=), Labour: 21 (+1), Green: 11 (+1), Liberal Democrats: 5 (=), ALBA: 0 (=). Britain Elects/New Statesman. SNP Majority of 5. Changes w/ 14th April.
  • An outright majority for the SNP would inevitably lead to louder calls from the Scottish gov't for another independence referendum, with a poll in 2022 or 2023 believed to be favoured rather than an immediate vote.
  • The Nowcast shows the SNP down two seats on the previous publication. Even if the SNP falls short of a majority, the pro-independence Greens would likely prop them up in gov't, but it could dampen the force with which the SNP would be able to argue there is a clear majority of the Scottish electorate in favour of another referendum.
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