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INDIA: SocGen Believe RBI Could Cut Rates at Malhotra’s First Meeting

INDIA
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  • SocGen believe that the RBI could make what they deem to be a necessary rate cut at the first MPC meeting under new Governor Malhotra.
  • The new Governor’s take on growth (a worry) and currency (limited intervention) unlike his predecessor’s suggests that monetary policy is likely to tilt towards supporting growth rather than continuing to be fearful of inflation, SocGen say.
  • They note, however, that tight financial conditions, a potentially heightened risk-off scenario in the event that Trump tariffs inch closer toward the levels originally suggested and further weakening in the currency pose challenges. Hence the approach needs to be cautious and data dependent.
  • While SocGen do believe that the easing cycle is likely be shallower than previously expected, they note that delaying the easing cycle further could prove to be costly.
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  • SocGen believe that the RBI could make what they deem to be a necessary rate cut at the first MPC meeting under new Governor Malhotra.
  • The new Governor’s take on growth (a worry) and currency (limited intervention) unlike his predecessor’s suggests that monetary policy is likely to tilt towards supporting growth rather than continuing to be fearful of inflation, SocGen say.
  • They note, however, that tight financial conditions, a potentially heightened risk-off scenario in the event that Trump tariffs inch closer toward the levels originally suggested and further weakening in the currency pose challenges. Hence the approach needs to be cautious and data dependent.
  • While SocGen do believe that the easing cycle is likely be shallower than previously expected, they note that delaying the easing cycle further could prove to be costly.