Free Trial

SocGen Now Sees 100bp July Hike, Cuts To Start In 2024

FED

SocGen's analysts are now looking for a 100bp Fed hike in July, with both employment and inflation exceeding expectations. The latter is "particularly troubling given rents and components that are sticky and have a strong correlation with tight labor markets".

  • Their longer-term views are unchanged: they still expect a 3.40% terminal rate (ie 3.25-3.50% funds range), with the first rate cut in early 2024 (base case is for a slowdown in the economy as inflation moderates).
  • "Recession should be distant", though the yield curve suggests that "risks are rising".

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.