Free Trial

SocGen See Above Consensus For AHE Growth

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • SocGen forecast a 280k increase in NFP, with many job openings to fill in healthcare, the leisure sector and education.
  • The total working-age population is growing at a 150-175k pace - over time, job gains above this population pace should drive down the unemployment rate further even if they don’t line up from month-to-month.
  • They see the u/e rate dipping a tenth to 3.6% after the 0.2p increase in August as more than 700k rejoined the workforce is unlikely to be repeated. If there are no returnees, the u/e rate could drop even more.
  • They see AHE wage growth rising 0.5% M/M, with the shortfall of 0.3% in August seen as noise rather than the beginning of a new trend.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.