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SocGen Ups Terminal ECB Rate View By 75bp To 3.75%

ECB
SocGen has raised its ECB terminal rate call to 3.75% from 3.00% - including two further 50bp hikes followed by three 25bp hikes:
  • "While today’s rate hike was in line with expectations, the need for further significant rate hikes, on the back of a substantial upward revision to the inflation forecasts, and the details on QT (E15bn per month as of March) was less expected. This confirms our impression that the ECB will not use QT very aggressively to fight inflation, and that the terminal rate thus needs to go higher."
  • On QT: "Given the redemption calendar, it will not be easy to ramp up QT materially in 3Q, but in 4Q we could see an increase to E20-25bn/month. We also believe this puts pressure on PEPP QT already early in 2024."
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