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Societe Generale View Ahead of the Sep MPC Meeting

BOE
  • SocGen believes that "the vote this week may well not be unanimous. There is some chance that Saunders, along with Haskel, already votes for a further expansion of QE."
  • SocGen continue to believe the labour market is key but note "We are probably still sometime away from convincing evidence starting to emerge of a serious declining trend in employment; the MPC is likely to wait until then, probably November, before pressing the easing button again."
  • SocGen also point to Saunders as being a bellweather for the MPC stating "He was the first member of the MPC to espouse this idea of "risk management" which soon became the established doctrine of the MPC. His view is likely to be representative of the majority of MPC members at present."

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