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SOFR Update: Rate Cut Revitalized Post Data

STIR
  • This morning's post-data rally focus on retail sales miss has breathed life into projected rate cuts again - still well off pre-CPI highs, however: March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut currently -14.4% w/ cumulative of -3.6bp at 5.293%; May 2024 at -35.4% vs. -31.2% earlier w/ cumulative -12.7bp at 5.202%; June 2024 -75.4% vs. -71.2% earlier w/ cumulative cut -31.6bp at 5.013%. Fed terminal at 5.3275% in Feb'24

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