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Soft Eurozone Inflation Continue To Weigh On BoE/ECB Hike Pricing

STIR

Bunds and Gilts have fully bounced back after an initial US Treasury-led drop on the strong US job openings data.

  • While Fed hike pricing is higher for the next two meetings (by 2bp Jun and 4bp Jul respectively), that hasn't translated across the Atlantic, where Jun/Jul hike pricing has been steady.
  • If anything ECB/BoE terminal expectations have dipped a little in the past hour with he softer-than-expected overall eurozone May prelim inflation prints continuing to dampen tightening fervour. On the day:
  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing -14bp to 5.41% (91bp of further hikes left in the cycle) - 3bp lower than pre-JOLTS/Chicago PMI.
  • ECB terminal depo Rate pricing -3.6bp to 3.73% (48bp of further hikes left in the cycle)

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