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Softening Henry Hub Contango Could be Opportunity for Utility Hedges

NATGAS

The recent bullish move at the front of the Henry Hub curve has not been reflected in contracts further out likely driven by producer hedging of gas exposure for the future months according to Gelber & Associates.

  • The premium for longer dated contracts has reversed direction since the beginning of the month with the December 2024 contract showing losses despite the front-month gains. Jun24 futures are up nearly $0.3/mmbtu since April 30 while Dec24 is down $0.05/mmbtu.
  • The difference in pricing suggests a significant change in forward curve dynamics after seeing a strengthening contango for several months.
  • This change in forward curve dynamics could represent an attractive opportunity for downstream market participants. Utilities have either had to pay elevated prices for forward hedges or remain unhedged and wait for more attractive prices.


Source: Bloomberg

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