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Softer Core Services CPI In Recent Months, Including Supercore

US DATA
  • Core goods and core services were both revised lower in Dec, and oddly both by a larger amount than the core CPI figure.
  • We’re still looking into it but wonder at first glance if it’s down to intervention analysis of some items within the seasonal adjustment.
  • Core services are left a little cooler (-0.05pps at 0.38% M/M in Dec), with the downward revision for Dec seen across both “supercore” (-0.06pps to 0.34% M/M) and housing (-0.04pps to 0.42% M/M).
  • It left the supercore running at a three-month 4.04% annualized vs 4.32% pre-revision, with less change over a six-month basis with 4.48% vs 4.57%.

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