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Softer Dollar Provides Slight Relief to CE3 FX

CEE FX
EURHUF, EURPLN and EURCZK are all respecting recent ranges, with moves in either direction lacking any notable follow-through. The continued downtick in the DXY and latest bounce in most major equity indices is providing relief for broader risk assets, with the MSCI EM FX index noted to have recorded its lowest level since February earlier in the week amid the risk-off tone in global markets.
  • HUF, nevertheless, is outperforming its regional peers. EURHUF sits 0.33% lower on the day at typing, while USDHUF is a more pronounced 0.75% lower. EURCZK saw a moderate uptick following a surprise downward revision to Q2 GDP – from -0.4% y/y to -0.6% in the final reading. The cross had been trading at its lowest level in 2-weeks prior to the data but is now up 0.15%. EURPLN, meanwhile, is marginally in the red but comfortably off the day's lows following the weaker-than-expected CPI data (-0.4% m/m vs. +0.1% expected).
  • Looking ahead, price action of currencies in the region will likely continue to be dictated by developments in the US and Eurozone given sensitivity to the Fed and ECB’s rate paths and the “higher-for-longer” theme currently dictating global markets.
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