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Softer Metals Drives A$ Underperformance

AUD

AUD/USD lagged the broader USD sell-off post the Asia close. We did rebound from fresh lows around 0.6665, but couldn't move back above the 0.6700 level during the NY session. The A$ was close to flat for Monday's session despite a 0.47% pull back in the DXY. The currency only saw marginal benefit from the lower US yield backdrop, while equity sentiment was mixed.

  • The softer metals backdrop continues to act as an AUD headwind. Iron ore is at $103.30/ton, slightly up from Monday session lows, but still at lows back to early Dec last year. Copper (CMX basis) is through 100-day MA support, last near $395.40.
  • The Bloomberg metals index fell 0.69% for Monday's session, the fourth straight fall. The aggregate Bloomberg commodity index was +0.40% higher, helped by firmer energy prices.
  • AU markets (like NZ) are closed today for ANZAC day, which will result in thinner liquidity in both AUD and NZD FX crosses.
  • Tomorrow the focus will firmly be on Q1 CPI for Australia, which will serve as a key input into the RBA decision at the May board meeting. The market expects easing inflation pressures, see our preview here.
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