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​Softer PMI Contractions Signal Q4 GDP at -0.2% q/q

EUROZONE DATA
MNI (London)

In line with French and German Flash PMIs, the December euro area PMIs saw modest improvements to signal shallower contractions. Manufacturing ticked up 0.7pp to 47.8 and services by 0.6 points to 49.1, outpacing expectations of remaining unchanged.

  • The December PMIs, albeit improved, remained in contractive territory, extending the downturn into the sixth consecutive month. Business sentiment improved but remains weak on the back of high inflation, rising interest rates and energy supply concerns.
  • New orders fell for the sixth month running, albeit cooling markedly to a softer pace.
  • Output signalled a softer level of decline. Only France recorded a steeper downturn in December.
  • Sector-wise, chemicals and plastics continue to see the sharpest deterioration due to the additional burden of energy-intensive production as energy prices remain high. Financial services also saw substantial declines.
  • Employment ticked up modestly, as firms remained cautious in their hiring plans.
  • Prices eased as costs rose at the softest pace in over 1.5 years as demand conditions were muted and supply improved.
  • Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global: "The data for the fourth quarter are consistent with GDP contracting at a quarterly rate of just less than 0.2%, and forward-looking indicators are currently boding well for the rate of decline to ease further in the first quarter."

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