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EQUITIES: Softer Through the Open, But More Meaningful Support Ahead

EQUITIES
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  • The slide in equity futures into the cash open has persisted, putting the e-mini S&P at new daily lows of 6118.50 and well within range of the overnight and Tuesday lows at 6113.50. This puts cash markets lower in early trade, with the S&P 500 off by 0.1% to build on yesterday's lower close.
  • While the December range is largely being respected, markets will look shakier on a break of tested support at 6107.00/03.50, a print below which puts the index at the lowest this month.
  • Discretionary names are leading the weakness, with a lower open for Tesla (-2.5%) undermining the sector. In contrast, NVidia and semiconductors more generally are bouncing: NVidia is higher by near 3%, although will need to add another 3.5% here to get back to flat for December.
  • The Fed decision certainly the market focus ahead, at which the FOMC are expected to proceed with a further 25bps rate cut. The market is set to focus not on today's decision itself, but on the messaging and communication for the path of policy across 2025, via the policy statement, Powell's press conference and the dot plot.
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  • The slide in equity futures into the cash open has persisted, putting the e-mini S&P at new daily lows of 6118.50 and well within range of the overnight and Tuesday lows at 6113.50. This puts cash markets lower in early trade, with the S&P 500 off by 0.1% to build on yesterday's lower close.
  • While the December range is largely being respected, markets will look shakier on a break of tested support at 6107.00/03.50, a print below which puts the index at the lowest this month.
  • Discretionary names are leading the weakness, with a lower open for Tesla (-2.5%) undermining the sector. In contrast, NVidia and semiconductors more generally are bouncing: NVidia is higher by near 3%, although will need to add another 3.5% here to get back to flat for December.
  • The Fed decision certainly the market focus ahead, at which the FOMC are expected to proceed with a further 25bps rate cut. The market is set to focus not on today's decision itself, but on the messaging and communication for the path of policy across 2025, via the policy statement, Powell's press conference and the dot plot.