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Sole Intermeeting GDP Report Ahead At 0830ET

CANADA
  • Monthly GDP for Apr/May advance is released at 0830ET.
  • It’s the only GDP report between the June and July BoC meetings, although we’re still to see the June jobs report next week before the Q2 BOS/CSCE surveys and June CPI.
  • Analysts stick with the 0.3% M/M for real GDP in April indicated by last month’s advance estimate.
  • As for the May advance, (nominal) partial estimates have been weak but services are as always more of an unknown: core wholesale sales (-0.9% M/M), retail sales (-0.6% M/M) and manufacturing sales (+0.2% M/M), whilst hours worked were flat.
  • Accordingly, RBC look for May GDP softer than the April estimate and see Q2 GDP tracking close to their 1.4% annualized forecast for another decline in per-capita terms.
  • CIBC are a little more optimistic, forecasting GDP growth accelerating to around 2% annualized in Q2. However, “that’s only making up for the downside surprises seen in Q1 and downward revisions to Q4. Removing the one-time lift to activity from the resumption of auto manufacturing will likely reveal weaker growth over the rest of the quarter, with consumer caution weighing.”
  • The BoC in April forecast real GDP growth of 1.5% in Q2 following what was an overly optimistic forecast of 2.8% in Q1 (1.7% outturn).
  • Tuesday’s stronger than expected CPI report saw odds of a second BoC cut in July cut heavily. Despite building a little since then, they’re still only showing 10-11bps currently.
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