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Solid EU, UK PMIs Flag Services Inflation as Stubborn Issue

FOREX
  • A flattering set of PMI numbers from the UK, France and Germany this morning has raised further questions over the sustainability of a downtick in services inflation - and thereby the requirement for a sustained pace of rate cuts from the ECB starting as soon as June.
  • The subsequent EUR rally put EUR/USD through yesterday's highs to touch 1.0695 before fading, with markets clearly taking the view that S/T stubborn price pressures will still give way to easing across H2. GBP saw very similar price action, helping markets steer clear of any test of the pullback low printed yesterday at the 1.2300 handle.
  • The USD Index is flat-to-higher, shrugging off early PMI-induced weakness. Options markets have shown evidence of renewed demand for USD upside early Tuesday, evident in solid demand for EUR/USD, GBP/USD put structures.
  • Focus ahead turns to advance US April PMI figures and the new home sales release. The central bank speaker slate revolves around BoE's Pill and ECB's Nagel. The Fed remain inside their pre-decision media blackout period.
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