Solid Q4 Rise In Growth Expected, Watch Consumer Component

Even though Q4 GDP is backward looking, there will still be a lot of attention on the national accounts released today at 1130 AEDT. The consumption component includes both goods and services, unlike the monthly retail sales series, and so that will be an important gauge of consumer behaviour coming into the end of 2022.

• After this week’s partial Q4 data, analysts’ GDP estimate on Bloomberg has been revised up to 0.8% q/q from 0.7% (Q3 0.6%). Negative base effects are going to weigh on the annual growth rate.
• There is quite a range of forecasts with 0.4% at the lower end and 1.0% at the upper. Westpac and NAB are on consensus at 0.8%, whereas CBA is below at 0.7% and ANZ above at 1%.
• January CPI data also prints today and is projected to ease to 8.1% y/y from 8.4% with forecasts ranging from 7.5% to 8.5%. The monthly data doesn’t cover all series and the first month of the quarter doesn’t include updates for utilities, medical services, child care, autos or restaurant meals. The first month of the quarter has 62% of the basket updated and the rest is carried forward.