SONIA Futures Little Changed, 57bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced

SONIA futures are little changed to +1.5, with the uptick in Bunds providing some light support.

• BoE-dated OIS shows 13.5bp of cuts for the June meeting and ~57bp of easing through year end.
• We published our BoE review over the weekend.
• The MNI Markets team now assign around a 50% probability of a June cut from the BoE, a 40% probability of an August cut and a 10% probability that rate cuts are delayed further.
• Prior to the May meeting we had looked for a 10% probability of a May cut, a 30% probability of June, 40% probability of August and 20% probability of a delay beyond August.
• The latest survey from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development revealed a lack of movement in expected median pay settlements in the private sector for the coming 12 months, which sits at 4%. Meanwhile, expectations for the public sector were also steady, at 3%.
• Elsewhere, weekend press reports were dominated by pre-election posturing from PM Sunak.
• Tomorrow's labour market report provides the first UK release of note this week, although recent BoE-speak has pointed towards a greater focus on services inflation than wage metrics.