MNI BRIEF: Fed's Powell Says Neutral Rate Has Likely Risen

BOC SAYS FIRMS SEE SLOWER PRICE INCREASES AND WAGE GAINS

MNI BRIEF: China Q2 GDP Impacted By Bad Weather - NBS

MNI China Press Digest July 15: Consumption, Exports, FDI

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY100 Bln Via 1Y MLF; Rates Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY129 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK, Germany Auction on Tuesday

King's Speech Due Wednesday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

SONIA Futures Pressured Alongside Wider Core Global FI

STIR
HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Australian CPI data, Fedspeak and weak demand at yesterday’s Tsy auctions have applied further pressure to core global FI markets.

  • Bund futures have stabilised in recent trade, while SONIA futures are left flat to 5.0 lower.
  • BoE-dated OIS sees slightly less hawkish adjustments on the day. given the differentiation in settlement timing markers between the two markets.
  • Those contracts point to ~30bp of ’24 cuts, with a little over 50/50 odds of a cut showing through the Sep MPC.
  • UK headline flow remains centred on politics, with Labour looking to promote confidence in its ability to provide a steady pair of hands if the party is victorious at the July 4 election.
  • There isn’t any meaningful UK data of note scheduled for today, which will leave focus on macro headline flow and European data.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.197-0.3
Aug-245.124-7.6
Sep-245.070-13.0
Nov-244.964-23.6
Dec-244.896-30.4
162 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Australian CPI data, Fedspeak and weak demand at yesterday’s Tsy auctions have applied further pressure to core global FI markets.

  • Bund futures have stabilised in recent trade, while SONIA futures are left flat to 5.0 lower.
  • BoE-dated OIS sees slightly less hawkish adjustments on the day. given the differentiation in settlement timing markers between the two markets.
  • Those contracts point to ~30bp of ’24 cuts, with a little over 50/50 odds of a cut showing through the Sep MPC.
  • UK headline flow remains centred on politics, with Labour looking to promote confidence in its ability to provide a steady pair of hands if the party is victorious at the July 4 election.
  • There isn’t any meaningful UK data of note scheduled for today, which will leave focus on macro headline flow and European data.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.197-0.3
Aug-245.124-7.6
Sep-245.070-13.0
Nov-244.964-23.6
Dec-244.896-30.4