MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 13

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Curb Any Yuan Overshot : PBOC Zou

MNI: GERMANY OCT EXPORTS -2.8% M/M (VS FCST -2.6%)

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY17.1 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY17.5 TRLN: PBOC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE OCT IP +0% M/M, -1.2% Y/Y

MNI: SPAIN NOV HICP +0% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE NOV HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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SONIA Futures Rally On French Political Uncertainty, Nearly 45bp Of ’24 BoE Cuts Priced

STIR

SONIA futures are flat to +8.5, at/just off session highs, with the French political situation dominating another session.

  • BoE-dated OIS moves to price ~44bp of cuts through year end vs. ~42bp late yesterday.
  • Market implied probabilities point to ~80% odds of a 25bp cut come the end of the Sep MPC.
  • Domestically, political headwinds remain evident for PM Sunak, with the Conservative party slipping behind the Reform UK party in the latest YouGov poll, in another first for British politics.
  • The BoE-Ipsos inflation attitudes survey headlines the UK calendar ahead of the weekend (due imminently, at 09:30 London), although cross-market matters are set to receive as much, if not more, interest.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.201+0.1
Aug-245.087-11.3
Sep-244.998-20.2
Nov-244.863-33.7
Dec-244.761-43.9
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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