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SONIA Futures Rally On Labour Market Report, A Little Over 35bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced

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HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

The slightly softer-than-consensus UK labour market data provides some reprieve for received/long positions, allowing SONIA futures and BoE-dated OIS to rally.

  • More detail on the labour market report is available here.
  • SONIA futures are flat to +7.0, with the reds outperforming.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~36bp of cuts through year end vs. ~31bp at yesterday’s close.
  • The first full 25bp cut is once again priced through the November MPC.
  • The ruling Conservative Party will unveil its election manifesto today, with tax cuts set to form the centrepiece of that document.
  • A reminder that the Conservatives still trail Labour by a wide margin in the polls, with Labour set to reveal their manifesto on Thursday.
  • The monthly run of UK GDP & economic activity data is due tomorrow.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.197-0.3
Aug-245.104-9.6
Sep-245.031-16.9
Nov-244.916-28.4
Dec-244.841-35.9
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The slightly softer-than-consensus UK labour market data provides some reprieve for received/long positions, allowing SONIA futures and BoE-dated OIS to rally.

  • More detail on the labour market report is available here.
  • SONIA futures are flat to +7.0, with the reds outperforming.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~36bp of cuts through year end vs. ~31bp at yesterday’s close.
  • The first full 25bp cut is once again priced through the November MPC.
  • The ruling Conservative Party will unveil its election manifesto today, with tax cuts set to form the centrepiece of that document.
  • A reminder that the Conservatives still trail Labour by a wide margin in the polls, with Labour set to reveal their manifesto on Thursday.
  • The monthly run of UK GDP & economic activity data is due tomorrow.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.197-0.3
Aug-245.104-9.6
Sep-245.031-16.9
Nov-244.916-28.4
Dec-244.841-35.9