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SONIA Futures Tick A Little Lower

STIR

SONIA futures run flat to 2.0bp lower through the blues, with the late Wednesday downtick in U.S. Tsys (which has been partially reversed) applying some modest pressure. The space sits a little off worst levels, given the stabilisation in bonds during Asia-Pac hours.

  • BoE-dated OIS contracts are flat to 1bp firmer, showing ~94bp of cuts through '24.
  • Domestic headline flow continues to be dominated by political and fiscal matters. There hasn’t been anything too consequential re: the former, while the latter has seen the IFS suggest that the next UK government will inherit the most challenging set of tax and spending problems seen since at least the 1950s.
  • Looking ahead, only lower tier local data is due today, which will likely leave focus on wider market matters and headline flow (the latest ECB decision and U.S. data provide the scheduled risk events of note).
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Feb-245.200+1.3
Mar-245.190+0.2
May-245.104-8.3
Jun-244.976-21.1
Aug-244.781-40.6
Sep-244.603-58.4
Nov-244.392-79.5
Dec-244.248-93.9
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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