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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- STIR futures continue to move lower, led by the SONIA strip with Reds now up to 22 ticks lower on the day (up to 77.5 ticks lower on the week). This is continued follow through from the higher-than-expected UK CPI print earlier in the week and more recent hawkish comments from global policymakers, but also helped by this morning's better-than-expected retail sales print. Markets now price in 59bp for the MPC's September meeting (up from last week's 47bp close), 118bp (cumulatively) by November (up from 90bp), 163bp by December (up from 123bp), 197bp by February (up from 145bp) and 225bp by May (up from 157bp), with the curve then inverted past June. So 40bp more this year and 68bp more by May 2023 than expected at last week's close.
- Euribor futures are also under pressure, down up to 10 ticks on the day. Over a week this equates to the Dec-23 contract being over 30 ticks lower. Markets now price in 53bp for the ECB's September meeting (up from last week's 46bp close), 95bp (cumulatively) by October (up from 81bp), 124bp by December (up from 108bp), 157bp by March (up from 131bp) and 175bp by July 2023 (up from 143bp).
- Eurodollar futures have seen the smallest moves of the morning, with the strip moving lower by single digits, with Whites and Reds limited to 4 tick moves on the day. Markets now price in 63bp for the Fed's September meeting (up from last week's 62bp close), 101bp (cumulatively) by November (up from 99bp), 121bp by December (up from 119bp), 136bp by March (up from 133bp) and then the curve inverts thereafter.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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