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SONIA Markets Flat, A Little Under 50bp Of ’24 BoE Cuts Priced

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HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Little movement in BoE-dated OIS, with just under 15bp of cuts priced through the August meeting and ~47bp of easing showing through December's MPC decision

  • SONIA futures are little changed through the blues, operating on light volume.
  • We highlighted some potential short-term limitations for further dovish repricing on Monday.
  • The latest Sunak-Starmer debate took place last night but won’t be a market mover, given the lack of fresh information and Labour’s wide lead in the opinion polls.
  • The UK data calendar is empty today.
  • That will leave participants to eye broader news flow and wider market moves for cues.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.053-14.7
Sep-244.985-21.5
Nov-244.836-36.4
Dec-244.733-46.7
Feb-254.593-60.7
Mar-254.494-70.6
May-254.370-83.0
Jun-254.275-92.5

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.

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Little movement in BoE-dated OIS, with just under 15bp of cuts priced through the August meeting and ~47bp of easing showing through December's MPC decision

  • SONIA futures are little changed through the blues, operating on light volume.
  • We highlighted some potential short-term limitations for further dovish repricing on Monday.
  • The latest Sunak-Starmer debate took place last night but won’t be a market mover, given the lack of fresh information and Labour’s wide lead in the opinion polls.
  • The UK data calendar is empty today.
  • That will leave participants to eye broader news flow and wider market moves for cues.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.053-14.7
Sep-244.985-21.5
Nov-244.836-36.4
Dec-244.733-46.7
Feb-254.593-60.7
Mar-254.494-70.6
May-254.370-83.0
Jun-254.275-92.5

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.