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Free AccessSONIA Moves Towards Pricing 50bp Of BoE Cuts In '24
As noted elsewhere, recent lows have been broken in many SONIA futures contracts, last running +0.25 to -8.0 through the blues.
- BoE-dated OIS moves to price the shallowest ’24 cutting cycle seen in recent times, briefly indicating 51bp of ’24 cuts vs. 54bp last.
- Regional CPI data out of Germany has driven the move ( presenting upside risks to national core readings due later today), with nothing in the way of UK-specific inputs to note.
- We have seen confirmation that the UK Treasury has appointed Clare Lombardelli to replace outgoing BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent as of July 1st. Lombardelli was known to be in the running for the vacancy. She is currently the OECD's Chief Economist and G20 Finance Deputy.
- The local calendar is thin for the remainder of the day, leaving focus on German national CPI & U.S. PCE data.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Mar-24 | 5.200 | +1.2 |
May-24 | 5.167 | -2.1 |
Jun-24 | 5.106 | -8.3 |
Aug-24 | 4.984 | -20.4 |
Sep-24 | 4.890 | -29.9 |
Nov-24 | 4.749 | -43.9 |
Dec-24 | 4.648 | -54.1 |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.