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SONIA Moves Towards Pricing 50bp Of BoE Cuts In '24

STIR

As noted elsewhere, recent lows have been broken in many SONIA futures contracts, last running +0.25 to -8.0 through the blues.

  • BoE-dated OIS moves to price the shallowest ’24 cutting cycle seen in recent times, briefly indicating 51bp of ’24 cuts vs. 54bp last.
  • Regional CPI data out of Germany has driven the move ( presenting upside risks to national core readings due later today), with nothing in the way of UK-specific inputs to note.
  • We have seen confirmation that the UK Treasury has appointed Clare Lombardelli to replace outgoing BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent as of July 1st. Lombardelli was known to be in the running for the vacancy. She is currently the OECD's Chief Economist and G20 Finance Deputy.
  • The local calendar is thin for the remainder of the day, leaving focus on German national CPI & U.S. PCE data.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Mar-245.200+1.2
May-245.167-2.1
Jun-245.106-8.3
Aug-244.984-20.4
Sep-244.890-29.9
Nov-244.749-43.9
Dec-244.648-54.1
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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