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SONIA Off Lows On U.S. Data, Nearing 80% Odds Of First Cut Through Sep MPC

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HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

The post-U.S. data rally leaves SONIA futures off lows, last little changed to +2.5 through the blues, although a fade from post-data bests in U.S. fixed income also feeds into broader core global FI markets.

  • BoE-dated OIS moves to price ~41bp of ’24 cuts, with implied odds of the first 25bp cut nearing 80% through the end of the Sep MPC.
  • The latest BoE/Ipsos inflation attitudes survey will be released tomorrow.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.201+0.1
Aug-245.095-10.6
Sep-245.010-19.0
Nov-244.885-31.5
Dec-244.788-41.2
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The post-U.S. data rally leaves SONIA futures off lows, last little changed to +2.5 through the blues, although a fade from post-data bests in U.S. fixed income also feeds into broader core global FI markets.

  • BoE-dated OIS moves to price ~41bp of ’24 cuts, with implied odds of the first 25bp cut nearing 80% through the end of the Sep MPC.
  • The latest BoE/Ipsos inflation attitudes survey will be released tomorrow.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.201+0.1
Aug-245.095-10.6
Sep-245.010-19.0
Nov-244.885-31.5
Dec-244.788-41.2