Source of Aframaxes for TMX Crude Uncertain: Argus

Uncertainty remains over the source of tankers needed to export boosted Canadian Crude, following the TMX pipeline expansion completion, Argus said.

• The expansion of TMX will increase the pipeline’s capacity to move crude to the US West Coast for exports by sea by 590k b/d to 890 b/d.
• Most additional volumes will likely arrive into Vancouver's Aframax-exclusive Westridge Marine Terminal.
• However, the terminal’s distance from Aframax trading hubs could be problematic in finding freight.
• The terminal could load one Aframax per day is the pipeline is at full capacity, although 15 per month is more expected, Argus said.
• Some Aframaxes that operate on the USWC around LA could be available for Vancouver-loading, Vortexa said, noting the lack of alternatives for ballasters.
• The TMX project faces delays of up to two years from its planned launch in Q1 2024 if variance of construction is forbidden.