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Spain Data Recap: Q1 Growth Masks Household Consumption Contraction

SPAIN DATA
MNI (London)
  • Spanish harmonised inflation re-accelerated in April, rising 0.7pp to +3.8% y/y, albeit remaining softer than consensus expectations of a jump to +4.1% y/y. Anergy base-effects were largely responsible for the April CPI uptick. On the month, HICP rose +0.5% m/m, decelerating from +1.1% m/m in March.
  • Positive developments were noted in core CPI (non-harmonised) slowed by 0.9pp to +6.6% y/y, distancing further from the February peak of +7.6% y/y. No further detail was given in the release, yet is likely chiefly due to goods prices, with Spain's March PPI recording the first deflationary y/y reading since 2020.
  • Spain GDP expanded by +0.5% q/q in the Q1 flash estimate, outpacing forecasts of +0.3% growth. Q4 2022 GDP was revised up to +0.4% q/q, implying the Spanish economy fared well over the past two quarters.
  • Yet this more upbeat GDP print masks a substantial -0.8% q/q decline in domestic demand, with household consumption contracting by a solid -1.3% q/q. Services contracted by -0.1% q/q, led by a -7.2% q/q fall in financial and insurance services.
  • Similarly to France, strong exports (at +5.8% q/q in Spain Q1) largely boosted the headline GDP print.

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