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SPD Gains On AfD In Latest Brandenburg Polling

GERMANY
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The centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) have shown some signs of catching up with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the latest opinion polling ahead of the Brandenburg state election on 22 September. The latest pollsfrom FGW and Infratest dimap, conducted in the past week, show the SPD one and three per cent respectively behind the first-placed AfD.

  • The Brandenburg election will garner significant political interest, given the strong showing for parties of the far-right and far-left in state elections in Saxony and Thurungia earlier this month. Like these two, Brandenburg is another state of the former German Democratic Republic (East Germany) that has become the strongest base of support for the AfD in recent years.
  • The recovery in SPD support appears to have come at the expense of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), with the SPD - historically stronger in Berlin-surrounding Brandenburg than Saxony or Thuringia - seen as the better option for moderate voters looking to stem AfD gains.
  • So far, the CDU have maintained the 'firewall' around the AfD, refusing to hold any negotiations on state gov't formation. Instead, working alongside the far-left Sara Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is seen as an acceptable outcome. This scenario could be repeated following the Brandenburg election, with the SPD in the driving seat.

Chart 1. Brandenburg State Election Opinion Polling, % and 5-Poll Moving Average

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The centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) have shown some signs of catching up with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the latest opinion polling ahead of the Brandenburg state election on 22 September. The latest pollsfrom FGW and Infratest dimap, conducted in the past week, show the SPD one and three per cent respectively behind the first-placed AfD.

  • The Brandenburg election will garner significant political interest, given the strong showing for parties of the far-right and far-left in state elections in Saxony and Thurungia earlier this month. Like these two, Brandenburg is another state of the former German Democratic Republic (East Germany) that has become the strongest base of support for the AfD in recent years.
  • The recovery in SPD support appears to have come at the expense of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), with the SPD - historically stronger in Berlin-surrounding Brandenburg than Saxony or Thuringia - seen as the better option for moderate voters looking to stem AfD gains.
  • So far, the CDU have maintained the 'firewall' around the AfD, refusing to hold any negotiations on state gov't formation. Instead, working alongside the far-left Sara Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is seen as an acceptable outcome. This scenario could be repeated following the Brandenburg election, with the SPD in the driving seat.

Chart 1. Brandenburg State Election Opinion Polling, % and 5-Poll Moving Average

Keep reading...Show less