Speculation On Transnistria Grows Ahead Of 29 Feb Putin SotU Speech

Paula Erizanu at The Guardian posts on X: "Transnistria is about to request its annexation from Russia, an opposition politician from Transnistria said. Putin is about to make an announcement in this regard on 29th February." Transnistria is a breakaway province of Moldova that hosts 1,500 Russian troops and since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022 has been seen as a major potential flashpoint in the region given its position along the Dniester river on Ukraine's western border.

• Earlier in Feb Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Mikhail Galuzin, stated when asked about the potential for Moldova to retake Transnistria by force that “We are extremely concerned about such a possibility and have always made it clear that attempts to resolve the Transnistrian issue by force are counterproductive. We expect Chisinau to understand what a military scenario could mean for Moldova,”
• The Kyiv Independent notes"Vadim Krasnoselsky, the Russian proxy leader in Transnistria, called for increased military drills and heightened readiness on Jan. 22 in what he claimed was a response to alleged provocations from Moldova."
• Under President Maia Sandu Moldova has moved closer towards the EU, with Brussels agreeing to open accession talks with Chișinău in Dec 2023. The prosepct of Moldova joining the EU could come by 2030 at the earliest (but likely later). As this scenario looms the prospect of Russia taking overt or covert military action or launching hybrid attacks to stop such a development rises.